Land Use Change and Prediction in Kaysone Phomvihane City, Savannakhet Province: An Application of Geographic Information System (GIS) and CA-Markov Model

Abstract

The study of land use change and prediction in Kaysone Phomvihane city, Savannakhet Province, has had the following objectives: 1) To have compared land use changes in Kaysone Phomvihane City, Savannakhet Province, in 2015, 2018, and 2023 using Supervised Classification in ArcMap 10.8 with Landsat 8 OLI satellite images, categorizing land into four types: construction land (including cultural land, national defense-public security land, transportation land, industrial land, and construction land, all classified as the same type), agricultural land, wetland, and forest land; and 2) To have predicted land use in 2028 using the CA-Markov model, with land use classification data from 2018 and 2023 having been used as the database for prediction in the IDRISI Selva 17.0 program.

The study found that land use changes between 2015 and 2018 have shown the most significant increase in forest land, followed by construction land and wetland. The areas have increased from 2015 by 35.65, 5.27, and 1.03 km2, accounting for 18.99, 2.28, and 3.47%, respectively. Meanwhile, agricultural land has decreased by 41.95 km2, accounting for 20.70% of the total area. The changes in land use between 2018 and 2023 have shown that construction land has been the only type that has increased, with an area increase from 2018 of 35.34 km2, accounting for 14.98% of the total area. The land types that have decreased include agricultural land, which has reduced the most, followed by forest land and wetland, decreasing by 22.73, 12.26, and 0.35 km2, accounting for 14.14, 5.49, and 1.14%, respectively. The changes in land use between 2015 and 2023 have shown that construction land has increased the most, followed by forest land and wetland, increasing from 2015 by 40.61, 23.39, and 0.68 km2, accounting for 17.60, 12.46, and 2.29%, respectively. Agricultural land has decreased by 64.68 km2, accounting for 31.91%. Using the CA-Markov model, the land use prediction for the year 2028 has indicated that in the future year 2028, construction land will occupy the largest area, followed by forest land, agricultural land, and wetland. The areas will have been 296.21; 195.59; 132.95; and 26.08 km2, accounting for 45.51%, 30.05%, 20.43%, and 4.01%, respectively. The results of this study can be used as a foundational reference for planning land allocation by both public and private sectors, business operations, commercial decision-making, and residential relocation of the population, as well as for similar research.